http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/1876 2026-04-05T23:23:09Z http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/2117 A Markov-Switching Model of Taka/Rupee Exchange Rate: estimation and forecasting Shafiquddin, Raisa This study considers the validity of a (modified) monetary exchange rate model between monthly Bangladeshi Taka and Indian Rupee exchange rate in a Markov-switching framework. To reflect the beginning of the floating exchange rate regime by Bangladesh Bank, the sample period spans from May 2003 to March 2016. Empirical results lend support for Markov-switching model in capturing the long swings in the observed exchange rate. The results also show that various monetary fundamentals (i.e., interest rate differential, inflation rate differential, money growth differential, and trade balance) are statistically significant determinants of Taka-Rupee exchange rate. It then conducts several out-of-sample forecasting performances of the Markov-switching monetary model against a random walk model. A rolling window Markov-switching model generates better forecasts than a random walk. Policy implications of the results are also discussed. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 2016-12-20T00:00:00Z http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/2030 Forecasting Remittance Inflows in Bangladesh Salma, Ummah In Bangladesh remittance plays the role of central force in the economy by Contributing in Import payment, pays foreign loans and development sector. Bangladesh is the eighth biggest remittance recipient country in the world. Remittance inflows contributed around 8.2% of the GDP in 2014, which more than offset the trade balance. As of 2015, remittance inflows stood over $15 billion. According to (world bank, 2016), international migrants' remittances provide a lifeline for millions of households in developing countries at more than three times the size of development aid and migrants hold more than $500 billion in annual savings. Together, remittances and migrant savings offer a substantial source of financing for development projects that can improve lives and livelihoods in developing countries. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 2016-08-22T00:00:00Z