http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/1184 2026-04-05T23:50:47Z 2026-04-05T23:50:47Z Kazi, Abrar Hossain http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/1621 2019-03-13T10:01:19Z 2015-12-19T00:00:00Z

Impact of Ramadan on Global Raw Sugar Prices Kazi, Abrar Hossain The effect of annual religious event of Ramadan on raw sugar prices is the central theme of this research. This research investigates whether incremental demand for sugar due to sugar-based diet in Ramadan influences global raw sugar prices. The impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar price was estimated using a modified seasonal ARIMA model with four dummy and fractional indicator variables separately to represent Ramadan and its intensity. The study used monthly raw sugar price data (ICE contract no. 11) for thirty-four years from January, 1981 to January, 2015 to ensure that the sample size covered beginning of Ramadan on every Gregorian month. The results revealed that there was a significant impact of Ramadan on global monthly raw sugar prices as raw sugar prices grew by approximately 6.06% on account of Ramadan. This was later also supported by an estimated Unobserved-Components Model on raw sugar price series. Growth in monthly raw sugar prices from this model was found to be approximately 6.82% which ensures robustness of results from ARIMA model. These results also revealed price increase to be anticipatory as raw sugar prices began to rise one month prior to Ramadan and continued till the end of Ramadan. However, the rise in monthly average price during Ramadan was dependent on the intensity of Ramadan in a Gregorian calendar month. These results will help policy makers in countries with dense Muslim population to strategize on timing bulk raw sugar procurement for consumption during Ramadan. The results are also useful to sugar refiners and traders who require better visibility on price movements while assessing the needs for availing commodity price derivative products to mitigate commodity price risk. Furthermore, this methodology can act as a framework to assess impact of events such as Ramadan, whose recurrence is not based on Gregorian calendar, on other time series variables such as commodity prices, inflation, exchange rates etc. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

2015-12-19T00:00:00Z Moin, Abdus Sattar http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/handle/123456789/1377 2019-03-13T10:00:13Z 2015-06-09T00:00:00Z

Causality Test Between Savings and Income of Bangladesh (1972-2013) and Conditional Income Convergence of Bangladesh and India Moin, Abdus Sattar This thesis examines empirically the long-run relationship between per capita income growth rate (GDPPCGRB) and savings growth rate (GDSGRB) for Bangladesh (1972-2013). The study uses annual time series data. The study also tested to know whether there is income convergence between Bangladesh and India. The concept of conditional income convergence has been used in this thesis. Time series methods have been used for analysis of data. Correlogram and graphical analysis used as an informal procedures and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test used for formal analysis to carry out the empirical analysis. The Granger causality test supports bidirectional causality between per capita income growth and savings growth in Bangladesh. OLS technique has been used for convergence purpose. The test results contains that conditional income convergence hypothesis do work between Bangladesh and India. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

2015-06-09T00:00:00Z